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As Donald Trump clinched the U.S. presidency for a second term, African leaders swiftly extended their congratulations, expressing hopes for strengthened ties. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, eyeing a diplomatic reset, tweeted, “Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you.” Meanwhile, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu voiced optimism, hoping for “reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States.”
Yet, Trump’s previous administration left a complex legacy in Africa. His tenure saw funding cuts, immigration restrictions, and alleged derogatory comments about African nations. Nonetheless, he also introduced initiatives to boost U.S.-Africa trade, which have persisted beyond his first term. How Trump will approach Africa this time remains an open question.
Trade and Investment
President Joe Biden emphasized Africa as a key partner, though his administration struggled to solidify this commitment through substantial deals. One major achievement was the U.S. investment in the Lobito Corridor, a critical rail link across Angola, DR Congo, and Zambia. While this cooperation was celebrated, there are concerns that Trump, with his “America First” agenda, may scale back these investments.
Of particular concern is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has allowed African countries to export certain goods to the U.S. tariff-free since 2000. Trump previously indicated he might end the program when it expires in 2025 and has now proposed a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods, which could impact African exporters. For countries like South Africa, one of Agoa’s biggest beneficiaries, this shift could have serious economic implications. Still, Brookings Institution suggests South Africa’s economy might only see a small GDP dip if Agoa ends, as its key exports, like minerals, don’t rely on Agoa benefits.
Despite his criticisms, Trump introduced Prosper Africa and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to facilitate U.S. investments in Africa. With China’s influence in Africa growing, he may be cautious about scaling back these initiatives.
Aid and Security
The U.S. remains Africa’s primary aid donor, with nearly $3.7 billion in aid this year alone. However, Trump’s first term saw repeated attempts to slash foreign aid, efforts blocked by Congress. With Republicans now controlling both chambers, Trump could face less resistance to scaling back aid, raising concerns over the future of programs like Pepfar, a major U.S. initiative funding HIV relief in Africa. Recent Republican opposition to Pepfar over abortion concerns has fueled worries that Trump may end the program.
In the realm of security, Russia’s increasing involvement in Africa, particularly through arms and mercenaries in regions affected by Islamist insurgencies, has raised U.S. concerns. While Trump was previously supportive of Nigeria’s battle against Boko Haram, he may now be less inclined to confront Russia’s influence. Former Nigerian lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma noted Trump’s past support, saying, “Trump ultimately approved the purchase of Tucano jets, strengthening Nigeria’s defenses.”
However, as Gyude Moore, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, notes, Trump’s stance is highly unpredictable. As Moore puts it, “Trump is very unorthodox in how he does everything,” so Africa must brace for possible shifts—positive or otherwise—in U.S. policy.
