Tensions between South Africa and Rwanda have reached a boiling point, following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s accusations that the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group is responsible for the deaths of South African peacekeepers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As M23 rebels made significant gains, seizing most of the city of Goma, South Africa fired a diplomatic warning shot, declaring that further attacks on its troops would be seen as a “declaration of war.”
In response, Rwandan President Paul Kagame sharply criticized South Africa, claiming that its forces were part of a “belligerent force” supporting the Congolese government in what he described as “offensive combat operations” against its own people.
The dispute stems from escalating violence in the DRC, where 13 South African soldiers have been killed in recent clashes. These fatalities come after another seven South Africans died in the region last year, making the DRC one of the deadliest hotspots for South African peacekeepers. The South African troops, part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) peacekeeping force, have long been deployed to help stabilize the mineral-rich region, which has seen decades of conflict.
The situation took a diplomatic turn after Ramaphosa made a post on X (formerly Twitter) confirming that he had spoken to Kagame about the worsening conflict and emphasized the need for a ceasefire and peace talks. While Ramaphosa asserted that South Africa’s presence in the DRC was not a “declaration of war,” his Defence Minister Angie Motshekga was more forthright, warning that the South African government would interpret any further attacks as an escalation.
Ramaphosa also suggested that South African peacekeepers had been killed by M23 rebels, alongside “Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) militias.” This statement enraged Kagame, who denied the claim, calling it a “lie” and a distortion of the facts. Kagame insisted that the Congolese army (FARDC) was responsible for the deaths of the South African soldiers, and sharply criticized South Africa’s involvement, calling its peacekeepers a “belligerent force” aligned with groups hostile to Rwanda.
Kagame’s comments were more than just a rebuttal—they were a clear demand for South Africa to reconsider its role in the DRC. He pointed out that South Africa had no business acting as a mediator or peacekeeper in the conflict, suggesting that if South Africa wanted to escalate matters further, Rwanda was prepared to “deal with the situation” on its terms.
The Strained History Between South Africa and Rwanda
The current dispute is just the latest chapter in a long and difficult relationship between South Africa and Rwanda. Tensions first flared in 2014, when South Africa expelled three Rwandan diplomats after an attack on the home of an exiled Rwandan dissident in Johannesburg. Rwanda retaliated by expelling six South African diplomats. Although relations seemed to improve after Ramaphosa’s visit to Rwanda in 2023, marking the 30th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, the latest conflict has reignited longstanding animosities.
The diplomatic fallout highlights the complexity of South Africa’s military involvement in the DRC. South African forces, part of the SADC’s peacekeeping mission (SAMIDRC), have been stationed in eastern DRC since December 2023, tasked with pushing back rebel groups like M23. However, many believe that South Africa’s involvement is not purely altruistic. The DRC is an important trading partner, particularly for its mineral resources, which are crucial to South Africa’s economy.
Strained Military Resources and Declining Capabilities
South Africa’s military, once one of the most capable in Africa, has seen its capabilities diminish due to budget cuts and aging equipment. During the last successful engagement with the M23 in 2013, South Africa’s air support, including the highly effective Rooivalk attack helicopters, played a pivotal role in pushing back the rebels. However, budget cuts have since grounded many of these aircraft, leaving South African troops in a vulnerable position as M23 has made a dramatic return to the region.
The loss of air cover has been particularly evident in recent clashes. Defence analysts have argued that South Africa’s military was ill-prepared for the current crisis in the DRC, with warnings about the lack of resources and the growing gap between the military’s capabilities and the growing threat of well-equipped rebel groups like M23.
South Africa’s Dilemma: Stay or Withdraw?
For Ramaphosa, the situation in the DRC presents a difficult choice. On the one hand, pulling South African troops out would be seen as an embarrassing retreat and could strain relations within the SADC, which authorized their deployment. On the other hand, staying could lead to more casualties and further diplomatic tension with Rwanda, a key regional player.
The decision may ultimately rest with SADC, which is expected to make a decision at an upcoming summit. But regardless of the outcome, the crisis in the DRC has underscored the limits of South Africa’s military power and its influence in the region.
Looking Ahead
For now, the diplomatic standoff between South Africa and Rwanda shows little sign of easing. Both countries have entrenched positions, and with South Africa’s troops caught in a military quagmire, the future of peacekeeping efforts in the DRC hangs in the balance.
As tensions continue to rise, South Africa may be forced to reassess not only its military strategy but also its broader role in the DRC. The government will need to carefully weigh the costs of maintaining its presence in the region against the potential consequences of a continued military and diplomatic conflict with Rwanda.