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A military alliance between Somalia and Egypt is raising alarm in the fragile Horn of Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, where concerns are growing that the situation could escalate beyond a diplomatic dispute.
Tensions heightened this week as two Egyptian C-130 military planes arrived in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, marking the start of an agreement signed in August during a state visit by the Somali president to Cairo. The deal plans for up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to join a new African Union (AU) force by the end of the year, with an additional 5,000 reportedly set to be deployed separately.
Ethiopia, a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants, and currently in a standoff with Egypt over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile, warned it could not “stand idle while other actors take measures to destabilize the region.”
In response, Somalia’s defense minister dismissed Ethiopia’s concerns, stating that Ethiopia should stop “wailing” and that everyone “will reap what they sow,” alluding to the deteriorating diplomatic relations between the two nations.
**Ethiopia and Somalia’s Growing Rift**
The rising tensions are rooted in Ethiopia’s ambitions under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is determined to secure a port for his landlocked country. Ethiopia lost its access to the sea when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s. On New Year’s Day, Prime Minister Abiy signed a controversial agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland to lease a 20-kilometer stretch of its coastline for 50 years to establish a naval base. This move could potentially lead to Ethiopia officially recognizing Somaliland’s independence—a prospect Somaliland has been pushing for.
Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory, condemned the deal as an act of “aggression.” The Somali government fears that such a move could set a precedent, encouraging other nations to recognize Somaliland’s independence. Geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey notes that neighboring Djibouti is also concerned, as Ethiopia has traditionally relied on Djibouti’s ports for its imports.
In an attempt to de-escalate tensions, Djibouti’s foreign minister announced that the country is ready to offer Ethiopia “100%” access to one of its ports, specifically in Tadjoura, located 100 kilometers from the Ethiopian border. This marks a shift in Djibouti’s stance, as the country had previously been reluctant to provide Ethiopia with unfettered access to the Red Sea.
Despite efforts by Turkey to mediate, Somalia remains firm, insisting that Ethiopia must recognize its sovereignty over Somaliland before any further negotiations can take place.
**Why Ethiopia Is Upset with Somalia**
The rift between Ethiopia and Somalia deepened when Somalia announced that Ethiopian troops would not be part of the new AU force starting in January. The AU’s current peacekeeping mission, which began in 2007 shortly after Ethiopian troops crossed the border to combat al-Shabab militants, includes at least 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers.
Somalia’s prime minister recently declared that Ethiopia must withdraw its other 5,000 to 7,000 troops stationed in various regions under separate bilateral agreements unless Ethiopia retracts its port deal with Somaliland. Ethiopia views this as a betrayal, with its foreign minister emphasizing the sacrifices Ethiopian soldiers have made for Somalia. The withdrawal of these troops could leave Ethiopia vulnerable to attacks from jihadist groups, according to Christopher Hockney, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute.
Moreover, the planned deployment of Egyptian troops along Ethiopia’s eastern border has added to Ethiopia’s apprehension. Egypt has long viewed Ethiopia’s Nile dam as an existential threat and has previously warned that it would take “measures” if its security were compromised.
**The Contentious Nile Dam**
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which began construction in 2011 on the Blue Nile, has been a major source of tension between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply, accuses Ethiopia of threatening its water security by pushing forward with the dam project without considering the interests and rights of downstream countries.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, sees the dam as a transformative project that will provide electricity to 60% of its population and ensure a steady power supply for businesses. Diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement on the dam’s operation and the amount of water that should flow downstream to Sudan and Egypt have so far been unsuccessful, with talks breaking down last December.
**What’s at Stake?**
Egypt views its military deal with Somalia as “historic” and potentially a way to settle scores over the Nile dam. Dr. Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, warns that the Nile dispute could spill over into Somalia, potentially leading to a “low-scale inter-state conflict” between Ethiopia and Egypt if their troops meet at the Somalia border.
The establishment of Egyptian military bases in Somalia could further destabilize the region, with Somaliland also expressing concern. Both Ethiopia and Somalia are already dealing with internal strife—Ethiopia with low-level rebellions in several regions, and Somalia, recovering from a 30-year civil war, continues to grapple with the threat posed by al-Shabab.
Experts caution that neither country can afford further conflict, as it would likely exacerbate unrest and lead to more migration. Dr. Khannenje also notes that a conflict in the region could complicate the geopolitics of the Red Sea, potentially drawing in other players and disrupting global trade. The Red Sea is a critical maritime route, with 12% of global trade, valued at $1 trillion, passing through it annually.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey, which have strong interests in the Red Sea, are closely watching the situation. Turkey and the UAE, both of which have investments in the region, may have a better chance at mediating the dispute and finding a compromise.
All eyes will be on the upcoming diplomatic talks led by Turkey, scheduled to begin in mid-September, as the international community hopes for a peaceful resolution to the escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa.
