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Mozambique is gearing up for a pivotal election that will mark the end of an era, as the country prepares for its first presidential candidate born after independence. The Frelimo party, which has ruled for 49 years, is fielding 47-year-old Daniel Chapo, a charismatic newcomer who represents a shift from the old guard of leaders forged in the struggle against Portuguese colonial rule.
Chapo, Frelimo’s hope for a fresh start, faces the challenge of rallying voters tired of the party’s long reign. Political analyst Charles Mangwiro said, “In some areas, Frelimo campaigners have been booed and openly rejected.” The presidential, parliamentary, and gubernatorial elections are set for Wednesday.
Outgoing President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down after two terms, hoping to pass the baton to Chapo, but his administration has been tarnished by the “tuna bond” scandal, which caused the country’s worst economic crisis. Chapo, who became governor of Inhambane province in 2019 and rose to Frelimo’s general secretary in 2023, has distanced himself from the corruption that has plagued the party. His campaign rallies draw large crowds, with a popular campaign song declaring him “the voice of hope.”
However, human rights activist and journalist Mirna Chitsungo remains skeptical. “He faces the challenge of promising to fight corruption while belonging to a party that, on a large scale, has perpetuated it,” she mentioned. Chapo’s relative inexperience in national politics, having joined government in 2011, could be both a strength and a weakness.
Adding to the controversy is the accusation of electoral fraud. The watchdog group Centro de Integridade Pública claims that around 5% of registered voters—nearly 900,000—are “ghost voters.” Mozambique analyst Joe Hanlon pointed out that some provinces, particularly the Frelimo stronghold of Gaza, have more registered voters than eligible adults.
Chapo’s main challengers are Venâncio Mondlane, an independent; Ossufo Momade, leader of the opposition Renamo party; and Lutero Simango of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM). Mondlane, 50, is gaining popularity with his slogan “Save Mozambique—this country is ours,” which resonates with young voters. A former banker, Mondlane previously ran for mayor of Maputo, where many believe his victory was stolen in favor of Frelimo.
Momade, who took over Renamo after the death of long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama, signed a peace deal in 2019 to end the civil war between Renamo fighters and government forces. However, Mondlane’s defection from Renamo and subsequent candidacy could split the opposition vote, benefiting Chapo.
Chapo has shown determination by raising campaign funds in neighboring South Africa, even addressing Mozambicans in Johannesburg and urging them to vote at the embassy. Mondlane has also campaigned in Johannesburg, appealing to expatriates at a local market, promising to address the issues that forced them to leave Mozambique.
Notably absent from the election debates is the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, where jihadist attacks have disrupted liquefied natural gas projects since 2017. While Rwandan and South African troops continue to fight the insurgents, political risk expert Ziyanda Stuurman notes an “uptick in insurgent attacks” since January.
For most analysts, the central challenge for Mozambique’s next president will be tackling extreme poverty—62% of the population lives on less than $1.90 a day. As candidates prepare for their final rallies on Sunday, Mangwiro, the political analyst, says the race remains “too close to call.”
