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The fragile peace keeping South Sudan from descending back into civil war is rapidly unraveling, following dramatic political developments that threaten to plunge the world’s youngest nation into renewed conflict.
This week, tensions exploded after First Vice President Riek Machar was formally charged with treason, murder, and crimes against humanity. His removal from the transitional government has sparked a furious backlash from his opposition party, the SPLM-IO, which is now openly calling for regime change.
Treason Charges and Rising Tensions
Machar, who has been under house arrest for months, was accused of orchestrating a deadly militia attack in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, in March. The assault, allegedly carried out by the Nuer ethnic militia known as the White Army, reportedly killed more than 250 government soldiers.
The government’s decision to press charges and expel Machar from his role in the unity government—formed under the 2018 peace agreement—marks a dramatic escalation in a country still reeling from the aftermath of a five-year civil war that claimed nearly 400,000 lives.
Opposition Decries “Dictatorship”
Machar’s party, the SPLM-IO, has strongly denied any involvement in the Nasir attack, calling the charges politically motivated. In a statement released by acting chairman Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, the group accused President Salva Kiir’s administration of undermining the peace deal and using the judiciary to eliminate political rivals.
“The current regime is a construct of dictatorship, peace disruptors, and state capture,” the statement read. It urged supporters to enlist for “National Service in defense of the citizens and the nation” and vowed to “strive to bring about regime change.”
Former lawmaker Juol Nhomngek Daniel echoed these claims, telling AFP that Machar’s prosecution amounted to “political persecution, not legitimate legal action,” and warned that a return to violence was likely. “The ensuing conflict will be chaotic,” he said, “resulting in widespread insecurity.”
Peace Agreement in Tatters
South Sudan gained independence in 2011 but fell into civil war just two years later after clashes between forces loyal to President Kiir and then-Vice President Machar.
The 2018 peace agreement brought a shaky truce and led to the formation of a unity government. However, the deal has been slowly eroding. Key reforms remain unimplemented, and elections originally slated for 2024 have been postponed to 2026—deepening public frustration and fueling mistrust among opposition factions.
A Nation on the Edge
The latest developments have triggered alarm from the international community. Earlier this year, the United Nations warned of a “concerning regression” in South Sudan’s peace process and expressed fears that the country could slide back into conflict if political dialogue fails.
Now, with the SPLM-IO mobilizing and the government doubling down on charges against its chief rival, many fear the window for diplomacy is rapidly closing.
As both sides harden their positions and tensions mount, South Sudan once again finds itself at a crossroads—its future uncertain, and the specter of war looming large over its fragile peace.
